|
SOURCE: Office of the Secretary of Defense, "Summary of Population Fatalities from Nuclear War in 1966," 17 February 1962, with attachment on "Soviet Bloc Targets and U.S. and NATO Destruction Capabilities as of Mid-1967," 15 February 1962, both Top Secret, released 1993 NARA, Record Group 200, Papers of Robert S. McNamara, file: Defense Projects and Operations. Box 83. B-70 - McNamara Statements. |
PRELIMINARY
2-17-62
SUMMARY OF POPULATION FATALITIES FROM NUCLEAR
WAR IN 1966
(In Millions)
|
1. Soviet First Strike |
No Warning for West |
15-Minute Warning for West |
||||
|
U.S. |
W.Eur. |
USSR |
U.S. |
W.Eur. |
USSR |
|
|
a. Urban-Industrial |
-- |
-- |
85 |
-- |
-- |
95 |
|
b. Military and Urban-Indl. |
75 |
115 |
65 |
75 |
115 |
75 |
|
c. Military (Groundburst) |
56 |
85 |
21 |
56 |
85 |
33 |
|
d. Military(Airburst vs Soft) |
25 |
15 |
10 |
25 |
15 |
21 |
|
II. United States First Strike |
No Warning for USSR |
Usable Warning for USSR |
||||
|
U.S. |
W.Eur. |
USSR |
U.S. |
W.Eur. |
USSR |
|
|
a. Urban-Industrial |
62 |
49 |
-- |
85 |
99 |
-- |
|
B. Military and Urban-Indl. |
38 |
40 |
70 |
62 |
70 |
70 |
|
c. Military (Groundburst) |
26 |
35 |
55 |
49 |
60 |
55 |
|
d. Military(Airburst vs Soft) |
|
|
25 |
|
|
25 |
Note:
1. On the first strike of either belligerent a urban-industrial strike option is not considered.
2. Under the Soviet first strike, options c and d, POLARIS A-3 was held in reserve for war termination bargaining. If POLARIS A-3 were then to be assigned to the USSR urban-industrial targets, an additional 30-35 million mortalities could be inflicted.
3. Both the U.S. and USSR are assumed to have improvised fallout protection for approximately 80 per cent of the population. No civil defense program is assumed for Western Europe. Without fallout protection, the casualties in the U.S. and Soviet Union would increase by from 50% to 80%, depending on the strike option.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SOVIET BLOC TARGETS AND U.S. AND NATO DESTRUCTION CAPABILITIES AS OF MID-1967
(Soviet 1st Strike; Median Case; Urban-Military Targets)
|
Soviet Bloc Targets |
Aim Points |
15 Minute Warning |
No Warning |
||||||
|
Warheads Assigned (c) |
% Expected Kill |
Warheads Assigned (e) |
Expected Kill |
||||||
|
I (a) |
II (b) |
I |
II |
I |
II |
I |
II |
||
|
Urban-Indl Floor Space |
200 |
510 |
510 |
79 |
79 |
510 |
510 |
79 |
79 |
|
Total Population Fatalities (Unsheltered) |
|
|
|
32 |
32 |
|
|
32 |
32 |
|
Total Population Fatalities (Sheltered) |
|
|
|
26 |
26 |
|
|
26 |
26 |
|
Bomber/Support Bases |
200 |
410 |
410 |
97 |
97 |
510 |
510 |
82 |
82 |
|
Defense Suppression |
300 |
976 |
1,081 |
95 |
97 |
976 |
1,081 |
16 |
52 |
|
Nuclear Storage/Prod. |
50 (e) |
122 |
122 |
94 |
94 |
122 |
122 |
16 |
16 |
|
Naval & Submarine Bases |
50 |
100 |
100 |
85 |
85 |
100 |
100 |
10 |
10 |
|
Soft IRBM (4 per site) |
100 (e) |
295 |
400 |
94 |
97 |
345 |
450 |
92 |
97 |
|
Soft ICBM (2 per site) |
367 |
1,101 |
1,101 |
98 |
98 |
1,101 |
1,101 |
96 |
96 |
|
Hard ICBM (1 per site) |
100 |
400 |
400 |
42 |
42 |
350 |
350 |
18 |
18 |
|
European Satellite Military Targets |
240 (e) |
450 |
555 |
70 |
86 |
350 |
455 |
38 |
73 |
|
Total (d) |
1,607 |
4,364 |
4,679 |
|
|
4,364 |
4,679 |
|
|
a.) Case I - Includes programmed forces only; excludes NATO MRBM's
b.) Case II - Programmed forces, plus 450 MRBM's of which 315 are on-station.
c.) "Alert Force" weapons only.
d.) Includes 240 Aim Points and 300 Warheads in Force I and 615 Warheads in Force II, in addition to the Aim Points and Warheads included in “Package I”.
e.) SACEUR’s 26/4 Target List (excluding Major Subordinate Command Regional Program) for MRBM’s, fighter-bombers, and IRBM’s:
|
Airfields |
234 |
|
MRBM's |
113 |
|
Nuclear Sites |
18 |
|
Military Control |
49 |
|
|
414 |
Data: February 15, 1962