Estimating America's Firearm Stockpile, 1945-2017
Version 1.0
Created 23 October 2019

NOTE: The Excel File with Spreadsheet/Raw Data used for calculating some of the tables on this webpage is available HERE (38~ kb XLSX file)

Raw Firearm and Stockpile Numbers (1945-2017)

The data used to assemble this table came from two main sources:

Targeting Guns: Firearms and Their Control by Gary Kleck (2017)
BATF: Firearms Commerce in the United States: Annual Statistical Update – 2019. (1.1~ MB PDF)

Kleck assembled data on firearms production from 1899 to 1994 using several sources, the main ones being:

1899 to 1967: Firearms & Violence in American Life: A Staff Report Submitted to the National Commission on the Causes and Prevention of Violence, Newton and Zimring (1969) (17.9~ MB PDF)

1969-1972 (Handguns): Firearms and Federal Law: The Gun Control Act of 1968, Zimring (1975)

1975-1991: Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms figures.

I chose to cut off Kleck's figures in 1985 (which is why the color of the data changes); because data from 1986-2017 is available in the Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms' Firearms Commerce in the United States: Annual Statistical Update – 2019 (1.1~ MB PDF) which also offers greater granularity in what types of weapons are produced. (instead of generic 'handgun', it is 'pistol/revolver'.)

YEAR

Annual Firearm Production

Firearm Stockpile (Cumulative)

Pistols

Revolvers

Total Handguns

Rifles

Shotguns

Total Long Guns

Misc. Firearms

Total Firearms

Total Handguns

Total Long Guns

Total Firearms

1899-1945

N/A

N/A

12,657,618

N/A

N/A

34,251,565

N/A

46,909,183

12,657,618

34,251,565

46,909,183

1946

N/A

N/A

176,745

N/A

N/A

1,356,620

N/A

1,533,365

12,834,363

35,608,185

48,442,548

1947

N/A

N/A

264,256

N/A

N/A

1,836,669

N/A

2,100,925

13,098,619

37,444,854

50,543,473

1948

N/A

N/A

444,034

N/A

N/A

2,215,524

N/A

2,659,558

13,542,653

39,660,378

53,203,031

1949

N/A

N/A

262,504

N/A

N/A

1,940,925

N/A

2,203,429

13,805,157

41,601,303

55,406,460

1950

N/A

N/A

278,038

N/A

N/A

2,217,583

N/A

2,495,621

14,083,195

43,818,886

57,902,081

1951

N/A

N/A

348,373

N/A

N/A

1,738,210

N/A

2,086,583

14,431,568

45,557,096

59,988,664

1952

N/A

N/A

454,229

N/A

N/A

1,503,422

N/A

1,957,651

14,885,797

47,060,518

61,946,315

1953

N/A

N/A

415,857

N/A

N/A

1,583,063

N/A

1,998,920

15,301,654

48,643,581

63,945,235

1954

N/A

N/A

376,455

N/A

N/A

1,236,362

N/A

1,612,817

15,678,109

49,879,943

65,558,052

1955

N/A

N/A

429,237

N/A

N/A

1,399,846

N/A

1,829,083

16,107,346

51,279,789

67,387,135

1956

N/A

N/A

534,964

N/A

N/A

1,513,834

N/A

2,048,798

16,642,310

52,793,623

69,435,933

1957

N/A

N/A

538,032

N/A

N/A

1,442,544

N/A

1,980,576

17,180,342

54,236,167

71,416,509

1958

N/A

N/A

519,362

N/A

N/A

1,227,579

N/A

1,746,941

17,699,704

55,463,746

73,163,450

1959

N/A

N/A

648,672

N/A

N/A

1,526,066

N/A

2,174,738

18,348,376

56,989,812

75,338,188

1960

N/A

N/A

602,843

N/A

N/A

1,560,034

N/A

2,162,877

18,951,219

58,549,846

77,501,065

1961

N/A

N/A

561,742

N/A

N/A

1,473,809

N/A

2,035,551

19,512,961

60,023,655

79,536,616

1962

N/A

N/A

598,649

N/A

N/A

1,467,719

N/A

2,066,368

20,111,610

61,491,374

81,602,984

1963

N/A

N/A

676,062

N/A

N/A

1,555,762

N/A

2,231,824

20,787,672

63,047,136

83,834,808

1964

N/A

N/A

744,273

N/A

N/A

1,778,620

N/A

2,522,893

21,531,945

64,825,756

86,357,701

1965

N/A

N/A

1,013,300

N/A

N/A

2,107,921

N/A

3,121,221

22,545,245

66,933,677

89,478,922

1966

N/A

N/A

1,212,817

N/A

N/A

2,309,250

N/A

3,522,067

23,758,062

69,242,927

93,000,989

1967

N/A

N/A

1,673,417

N/A

N/A

2,413,345

N/A

4,086,762

25,431,479

71,656,272

97,087,751

1968

N/A

N/A

2,414,724

N/A

N/A

2,799,776

N/A

5,214,500

27,846,203

74,456,048

102,302,251

1969

N/A

N/A

1,725,383

N/A

N/A

3,084,186

N/A

4,809,569

29,571,586

77,540,234

107,111,820

1970

N/A

N/A

1,673,227

N/A

N/A

3,132,686

N/A

4,805,913

31,244,813

80,672,920

111,917,733

1971

N/A

N/A

1,777,862

N/A

N/A

3,233,186

N/A

5,011,048

33,022,675

83,906,106

116,928,781

1972

N/A

N/A

2,106,883

N/A

N/A

3,269,316

N/A

5,376,199

35,129,558

87,175,422

122,304,980

1973

N/A

N/A

1,781,261

N/A

N/A

3,930,432

N/A

5,711,693

36,910,819

91,105,854

128,016,673

1974

N/A

N/A

2,175,818

N/A

N/A

4,394,790

N/A

6,570,608

39,086,637

95,500,644

134,587,281

1975

N/A

N/A

1,995,077

N/A

N/A

3,332,767

N/A

5,327,844

41,081,714

98,833,411

139,915,125

1976

N/A

N/A

2,026,689

N/A

N/A

3,708,975

N/A

5,735,664

43,108,403

102,542,386

145,650,789

1977

N/A

N/A

1,914,050

N/A

N/A

3,183,161

N/A

5,097,211

45,022,453

105,725,547

150,748,000

1978

N/A

N/A

1,972,498

N/A

N/A

3,444,020

N/A

5,416,518

46,994,951

109,169,567

156,164,518

1979

N/A

N/A

2,231,088

N/A

N/A

3,493,255

N/A

5,724,343

49,226,039

112,662,822

161,888,861

1980

N/A

N/A

2,481,230

N/A

N/A

3,311,496

N/A

5,792,726

51,707,269

115,974,318

167,681,587

1981

N/A

N/A

2,712,200

N/A

N/A

2,868,968

N/A

5,581,168

54,419,469

118,843,286

173,262,755

1982

N/A

N/A

2,469,671

N/A

N/A

2,486,464

N/A

4,956,135

56,889,140

121,329,750

178,218,890

1983

N/A

N/A

1,943,069

N/A

N/A

2,111,304

N/A

4,054,373

58,832,209

123,441,054

182,273,263

1984

N/A

N/A

1,904,029

N/A

N/A

2,506,575

N/A

4,410,604

60,736,238

125,947,629

186,683,867

1985

N/A

N/A

1,684,754

N/A

N/A

2,289,515

N/A

3,974,269

62,420,992

128,237,144

190,658,136

1986

662,973

761,414

1,424,387

970,507

641,482

1,611,989

4,558

3,040,934

63,845,379

129,849,133

193,694,512

1987

964,561

722,512

1,687,073

1,007,661

857,949

1,865,610

6,980

3,559,663

65,532,452

131,714,743

197,247,195

1988

1,101,011

754,744

1,855,755

1,144,707

928,070

2,072,777

35,345

3,963,877

67,388,207

133,787,520

201,175,727

1989

1,404,753

628,573

2,033,326

1,407,400

935,541

2,342,941

42,126

4,418,393

69,421,533

136,130,461

205,551,994

1990

1,371,427

470,495

1,841,922

1,211,664

848,948

2,060,612

57,434

3,959,968

71,263,455

138,191,073

209,454,528

1991

1,378,252

456,966

1,835,218

883,482

828,426

1,711,908

15,980

3,563,106

73,098,673

139,902,981

213,001,654

1992

1,669,537

469,413

2,138,950

1,001,833

1,018,204

2,020,037

16,849

4,175,836

75,237,623

141,923,018

217,160,641

1993

2,093,362

562,292

2,655,654

1,173,694

1,144,940

2,318,634

81,349

5,055,637

77,893,277

144,241,652

222,134,929

1994

2,004,298

586,450

2,590,748

1,316,607

1,254,926

2,571,533

10,936

5,173,217

80,484,025

146,813,185

227,297,210

1995

1,195,284

527,664

1,722,948

1,411,120

1,173,645

2,584,765

8,629

4,316,342

82,206,973

149,397,950

231,604,923

1996

987,528

498,944

1,486,472

1,424,315

925,732

2,350,047

17,920

3,854,439

83,693,445

151,747,997

235,441,442

1997

1,036,077

370,428

1,406,505

1,251,341

915,978

2,167,319

19,680

3,593,504

85,099,950

153,915,316

239,015,266

1998

960,365

324,390

1,284,755

1,535,690

868,639

2,404,329

24,506

3,713,590

86,384,705

156,319,645

242,704,350

1999

995,446

335,784

1,331,230

1,569,685

1,106,995

2,676,680

39,837

4,047,747

87,715,935

158,996,325

246,712,260

2000

962,901

318,960

1,281,861

1,583,042

898,442

2,481,484

30,196

3,793,541

88,997,796

161,477,809

250,475,605

2001

626,836

320,143

946,979

1,284,554

679,813

1,964,367

21,309

2,932,655

89,944,775

163,442,176

253,386,951

2002

741,514

347,070

1,088,584

1,515,286

741,325

2,256,611

21,700

3,366,895

91,033,359

165,698,787

256,732,146

2003

811,660

309,364

1,121,024

1,430,324

726,078

2,156,402

30,978

3,308,404

92,154,383

167,855,189

260,009,572

2004

728,511

294,099

1,022,610

1,325,138

731,769

2,056,907

19,508

3,099,025

93,176,993

169,912,096

263,089,089

2005

803,425

274,205

1,077,630

1,431,372

709,313

2,140,685

23,179

3,241,494

94,254,623

172,052,781

266,307,404

2006

1,021,260

385,069

1,406,329

1,496,505

714,618

2,211,123

35,872

3,653,324

95,660,952

174,263,904

269,924,856

2007

1,219,664

391,334

1,610,998

1,610,923

645,231

2,256,154

55,461

3,922,613

97,271,950

176,520,058

273,792,008

2008

1,609,381

431,753

2,041,134

1,734,536

630,710

2,365,246

92,564

4,498,944

99,313,084

178,885,304

278,198,388

2009

1,868,258

547,195

2,415,453

2,248,851

752,699

3,001,550

138,815

5,555,818

101,728,537

181,886,854

283,615,391

2010

2,258,450

558,927

2,817,377

1,830,556

743,378

2,573,934

67,929

5,459,240

104,545,914

184,460,788

289,006,702

2011

2,598,133

572,857

3,170,990

2,318,088

862,401

3,180,489

190,407

6,541,886

107,716,904

187,641,277

295,358,181

2012

3,487,883

667,357

4,155,240

3,168,206

949,010

4,117,216

306,154

8,578,610

111,872,144

191,758,493

303,630,637

2013

4,441,726

725,282

5,167,008

3,979,570

1,203,072

5,182,642

495,142

10,844,792

117,039,152

196,941,135

313,980,287

2014

3,633,454

744,047

4,377,501

3,379,549

935,411

4,314,960

358,165

9,050,626

121,416,653

201,256,095

322,672,748

2015

3,557,199

885,259

4,442,458

3,691,799

777,273

4,469,072

447,131

9,358,661

125,859,111

205,725,167

331,584,278

2016

4,720,075

856,291

5,576,366

4,239,335

848,617

5,087,952

833,123

11,497,441

131,435,477

210,813,119

342,248,596

2017

3,691,010

720,917

4,411,927

2,504,092

653,139

3,157,231

758,634

8,327,792

135,847,404

213,970,350

349,817,754

Estimating Firearm Attrition and Prevalence Rates

Philip J. Cook of Duke University estimates that about 1% of US firearms stocks are lost each year due to disasters and various means. Gary Kleck disputes Cook's estimates, pointing out that “Guns are simple machines made of extremely durable materials, yet are both dangerous and valuable enough that their owners would take more-than-average care to avoid losing them.” (LINK)

I did my own analysis based off 1946 production; where 1,533,365 guns were manufactured and the stockpile of guns in the US was estimated at 46,909,183.

Annual Loss Rate

Guns Lost Annually
(based off 1946 stockpile)

Lost Guns as % of New Production
(for 1946)

0.1%

46,909

3.1%

0.2%

93,818

6.1%

0.3%

140,728

9.2%

0.4%

187,637

12.2%

0.5%

234,546

15.3%

0.6%

281,455

18.4%

0.7%

328,364

21.4%

0.8%

375,273

24.5%

0.9%

422,183

27.5%

1.0%

469,092

30.6%

It appears to me that a loss rate of 0.3% annually would be a good estimate; as new production of firearms also has to service the roughly 2.3 million males turning 18-19 in 1946 (Table 1, 120 Years of American Education: A Statistical Portrait – LINK gives the 18 to 19 y/o cohort size as being 4,754,000 – males are about 50% of population). Also, production has to be at a high enough level to ensure that the various levels of firearms vendors from individual stores, to small and large wholesalers, are stocked with a sufficient amount of firearms to keep shortages from occuring.

Applying this annual loss rate of 0.3%; along with Cook's 1% annual loss rate estimate gives the following tables:

Firearms Stockpile in the USA Assumption A
(0.3% Annual Loss Rate for Stockpile)

YEAR

Total Firearms in Circulation (Millions)

US Population

Firearms Per 1000 Population

1950

56.97

150,697,361

378.05

1960

74.57

179,323,175

415.83

1970

106.31

203,392,031

522.68

1980

158.02

226,545,805

697.52

1990

194.54

248,709,873

782.21

2000

229.38

281,421,906

815.08

2010

261.06

308,745,538

845.56

2017

319.09

324,217,542 (est)

984.19

Guns Lost

30.73 million guns lost over 72 years from 1945 to 2017.

Firearms Stockpile in the USA, Assumption B
(1% Annual Loss Rate for Stockpile)

YEAR

Total Firearms in Circulation (Millions)

US Population

Firearms Per 1000 Population

1950

54.85

150,697,361

363.98

1960

68.17

179,323,175

380.15

1970

94.54

203,392,031

464.80

1980

138.30

226,545,805

610.49

1990

164.66

248,709,873

662.04

2000

187.94

281,421,906

667.83

2010

207.15

308,745,538

670.94

2017

254.85

324,217,542 (est)

786.06

Guns Lost

94.96 million guns lost over 72 years from 1945 to 2017.

The numbers for a 0.3% loss rate assumption tend to support the various estimates that have been thrown around over the decades – back in the 1990s many estimates given in the media had about 200 million guns in circulation.

It also reflects the fact that guns are a continuing durable good; even if there is no interest in a particular gun by a new owner, it can still be traded away for a marginal value that justifies the time spent in setting up the trade – or kept as a 'beater' gun, a status that many other consumer goods don't have – who wants to keep a microwave or TV from the 1960s?

Personally Owned Firearms Stockpile Levels

Not a lot of reliable data is available; and I tend to distrust more modern surveys; because the public trust in government has plunged from 62% in 1968 to 17% in early 2019. (Pew Research – Public Trust in Government 1958-2019 – LINK). If people aren't willing to trust the “Government”, what makes you think they'd trust random strangers on the phone or via mail surveys?

There are some datapoints which we can use to determine stockpile levels:

OCTOBER 1968 HARRIS POLL:

Firearms & Violence in American Life: A Staff Report Submitted to the National Commission on the Causes and Prevention of Violence, Newton and Zimring (1969) (17.9~ MB PDF) has tables from an October 1968 Harris survey poll on firearms, where 1,175 people over 18 were sampled on multiple questions. This poll is notable because it was conducted before public trust in government had sunk to record low levels, so it can be regarded as somewhat trustworthy.

The poll found that: “The average number of firearms for each firearms-owning household is 2.24.”

October 1968 Harris Poll
Firearms Per Household

No Firearms

51%

1 Firearm

20%

2 Firearms

13%

3 Firearms

6%

4 or more Firearms

10%


October 1968 Harris Poll
Firearms Owned by Type

NUMBER OWNED

Handgun Owners

Rifle Owners

Shotgun Owners

Own 1

83%

63%

75%

Own 2

11%

24%

17%

Own 3

4%

7%

5%

Own 4

1%

3%

3%

Own More Than 4

1%

3%

1%

1975 NRA MEMBERSHIP SURVEY

The University of Maryland, Special Archives branch holds the Milton Reckord Papers. General Reckord was head of the NRA for a period of time in the 1930s, and performed duties as a NRA board member for several decades afterwards, until his death in 1975.

His papers contain the minutes for an 11 January 1975 meeting of the NRA's Membership Committee; where they discussed the basics of a NRA-provided insurance policy for membe r's firearms; specifically some of the results of an earlier survey of NRA members:

“The Committee reviewed the results of a [NRA] membership survey made in September 1974 primarily to ascertain interest in insurance. Of the 2.6% of the membership surveyed, 32% (802) returned the questionnaire. Of those responding, 72% indicated interest in gun damage and theft insurance. Eighty-six percent said they owned at least four guns; 34% owned more than 10 guns.”

When you add 86% and 34% you get 120%, so members may have checked off both the "at least 4 guns" and "more than 10 guns" boxes.

HAWAII FIREARM REGISTRATION NUMBERS, 2015

In Hawaii, you must register with the Police Chief within 5 days of a firearm purchase, or within 5 days of your arrival in Hawaii. You also need a permit to possess any kind of firearm.

The raw data is contained within Firearm Registrations in Hawaii, 2015 (73~ kb PDF local copy) issued March 2016.

Hawaii Firearm Registration Numbers

YEAR

Population

Permits Processed

Permits Per 1000 Population

Guns
Registered

Guns Per Permit

2000

1,211,537

6,489

5.35

20,845

3.21

2010

1,360,301

12,801

9.41

46,602

3.64

RATIONALES FOR CONSISTENCY OF PERSONAL STOCKPILE NUMBERS OVER THE DECADES

One possible reason for the amount of firearms per owner/household holding at around 2 to 4 firearms over the decades is that is the rough amount that can be stored in a lockbox under a bed or in a small closet safe. Not everyone has the living situation that can afford a large 30+ gun safe in their garage.