Production Cost Curves
(Revised May 2024)

Reference:
The Missile Defense Equation: Factors for Decision Making by Peter J. Mantle

Computing Cost for Current Unit from Learning Curve and First Unit Built

CostC = CostF * NLCF

Where:

CostC: How much it will cost to build the current unit on the production line.
CostF: How much it cost to build the first unit.
N: How many units have been built to date.
LCF: Learning Curve Factor (Derived from Learning Curve Slope)

Finding Production Necessary to Meet Cost Goals

Variables are the same as the prior equation.

Finding Maximum First Unit Cost for Cost Assumptions

Variables are the same as the prior equation.

Computing the Learning Curve Factor (LCF)

LCF = ln(S) / ln(2)

Where:

S: Learning Slope [Decimal; i.e. a slope of 80% is 0.8]

If we wanted to compute the LCF for a learning slope of about 80%; our equation would be:

ln(0.80) / ln(2) = -0.322

Typical LCF Slopes are:

80% (Typical in Aircraft Production)
90% (Typical in Ship Production)
95% (Typical in Ship Production)

A quick and dirty Slope estimate for mass produced munitions be done from this graph; which used a variety of 1980s US missile programs (HARM, Harpoon, Hellfire, HAWK, Maverick, MLRS, Patriot, etc) to estimate costing for another slightly different model (IRATE).

NOTE: Over long periods of production; if constant changes are demanded; the LCF slope trends upwards -- i.e. if you look at the USAAF contract costs for aircraft in WWII and try to estimate a LCF slope, it hovers around 95% - 97.5% due to the constant block changes -- the P-38 of 1941 has only vague links to the P-38L of 1945.

Calculator to find Current Cost


(For input of numbers on this page, you can use commas -- i.e. 1,000,000 or you can use abbreviations; 1B for 1 billion, 1.4M for 1,400,000 or 200K for 200,000. The page will automatically strip the commas and convert your abbreviations for internal use.)

Cost of First Item
Current Production Count
LCF Slope (Decimal Percentage)
Current Cost (Raw)
Current Cost (Simplified)

Calculator to find Number to Produce to Meet Cost Goals


(For input of numbers on this page, you can use commas -- i.e. 1,000,000 or you can use abbreviations; 1B for 1 billion, 1.4M for 1,400,000 or 200K for 200,000. The page will automatically strip the commas and convert your abbreviations for internal use.)

First Production Cost
Desired Cost Goal
LCF Slope (Decimal Percentage)
Production needed to hit cost goals

Calculator to find Maximum First Unit Cost Allowable for Cost Assumptions


(For input of numbers on this page, you can use commas -- i.e. 1,000,000 or you can use abbreviations; 1B for 1 billion, 1.4M for 1,400,000 or 200K for 200,000. The page will automatically strip the commas and convert your abbreviations for internal use.)

Desired Cost Goal at Nth Unit Produced
Number of Units Produced at N
LCF Slope (Decimal Percentage)
First Production Cost